Every decision
is a forecast.
Sometimes it's a yes or no. More often it's a distribution — and what matters is the skew and the tail risk.
What will Singapore's life expectancy at birth be in 2030?
< 8420%
84–84.536%
84.5–8531%
≥ 8514%
The System Behind
Every Forecast
№ 1 · 2 · 3
Torchcast systems rank first, second and third on the ForecastBench leaderboard — July 16, 2026. Read the announcement ↗
01
Fine-Tuned Multi-Agent
A forecast is not one model's answer, but many specialists reasoning as one.
Orchestration
02
Structured Intelligence Gathering
The world is read as structured evidence, not paraphrased into prose.
Evidence
03
RL Post-Trained LLM
Confidence is earned, not asserted — every probability tested against what came to pass.
Calibration
In researchFFM: A Foundation Model
FFM: A Foundation Model
for Forecasting
- One shared representation learned from heterogeneous evidence
- Inputs retain their native structure — never flattened into prose
- Infers latent factors and preserves uncertainty end to end
- Knows when signals are independent, duplicated, conflicting or outdated
- Expresses futures as calibrated probability distributions
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Uncertainty is expensive. We make it measurable.
Calibrated probabilities for institutions and AI agents. If your team makes high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, we should talk.
Careers · Singapore
Join Torchcast
Start an exciting journey with us — building the world's forecasting layer.
hiring@torchcast.ai ↗